Hi Joe,
As a mathematician you pose an interesting problem trying to link the domain of conjecture to that of AWE.
We know the famous Fermat’s conjecture and how “after 358 years of effort by mathematicians, the first successful proof was released in 1994 by Andrew Wiles,…”.
But although AWE field comprises scientific elements, it is not included as such in mathematics, but constitutes an area of research in energy, with a propensity to eventually become an industry sector. So the “hypothesis” term would be more appropriate. This term is used in The no market Hypothesis topic.
You also object the forum policy expressed in this way: “The burden of proof rests with the poster”.
I think this might be in reply to a statement, not to an hypothesis.
Now, AWE has benefited from logistical, financial and intellectual support of a very large scale for several years. What you pose as a guess but which therefore seems to be a simple hypothesis, can have the beginning of an answer: it is now or never (at least in the near future).