Thinking, Rationality, being less wrong

Bayesian thinking should be a requirement for anyone doing (applied) science.

I think you want to maximize the number of observations you are able to make. That here needs a strong background in math, applied physics, cad, manufacturing, materials, and an endless list of other things. You can’t have that background in all things, so for this reason alone, besides all the others, you should ask for help.

I don’t have a strong background in anything, besides in how to think maybe, so besides trying to improve my foundational skills I just have to muddle through, incompetently.

This thread resonates with me:

https://www.reddit.com/r/AskEngineers/comments/a5ww0q/how_much_more_harder_are_the_more_real_world/

This for example:

Since I don’t know the maths and physics yet, I have to solve everything by doing experiments. So all I am thinking about is, what are possible solutions to this problem, how can I decompose that solution in its constituent parts, and how can I test the assumptions I’ve made in this solution, preferably with string, paper, cardboard, and tape?

If you look over my thinking over the years, it’s an endless branching of ideas, dead ends, and new beginnings. And still I’m not sure the entire thing isn’t just another dead end, so I have to approach it like a hobby, like learning to play the piano or playing chess, it’s the journey that’s important, not the getting there.

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