Ampyx Power AP-4 prediction

Will AP-4 be in operation before 2023, generating at least 2MW peak, connected to the grid?

Poll will close at the end of 2019.
Probability:

  • 0.0-0.1
  • 0.1-0.2
  • 0.2-0.3
  • 0.3-0.4
  • 0.4-0.5
  • 0.5-0.6
  • 0.6-0.7
  • 0.7-0.8
  • 0.8-0.9
  • 0.9-1.0

0 voters

The preciction coming out as negative won’t mean that Ampyx Power has failed completely.
They might just test and iterate longer, for example.

They themselves have not made a prediction to my knowledge on when they are going to do what.

@Kitewinder, @PierreB those are some gloomy predictions. Should I have put the question differently?

Yes because there is many questions. So total probability to answer yes to all of them become really low

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Hi @Luke,
@tallakt and me were right about a high level of funding predictions for:

The question here looks clear also, and could be sustained with https://www.ampyxpower.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Public-Summary-Final.pdf. The predictions can be more difficult as it is an utility-scale long term prediction. If there are no reliable news about AP 3, waiting time for AP 4 could be very long.

To be clear I think crosswind AWES suffer from:

  • Small power/land or sea and space use ratio, taking account of difficult secondary use due to fast moving tether with high tension.

  • Irregular power due to different tether angles during the flight figure.

  • Safety concerns for a 3.5 tons wing going fast with only an active automated control.

Adding for yoyo:

  • recovery phase requiring gaps within a kite-farm, or a temporary storage for a single unity.
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I’m not clued up enough on the specifics of Ampyx for my vote to be worth casting.
Would be good info to see a timeline trend line of their previous model peak powers

I don’t think they’ve released any data on power of previous models.
Ah come on, just guess! You can change it until the end of the year when new info comes in.

We should have a prediction market running for this.

Right now I think there is a quite large step necessary going from a demo on a grassy field to a 2 MW rig in the North Sea. Still, I wish them best of luck and all my hopes for their success. The first utility scale AWE could make a dent in the global warming issue, and that should be a big carrot to follow.

Next, even a 10% likelyhood of success could be enough to support an investment, if the upside is big enough. This is not my actual predictment, just for stating the point.

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1 Like