Ampyx Power AP-4 prediction

Analysis Company Development
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1

Will AP-4 be in operation before 2023, generating at least 2MW peak, connected to the grid?

Poll will close at the end of 2019.
Probability:

  • 0.0-0.1
  • 0.1-0.2
  • 0.2-0.3
  • 0.3-0.4
  • 0.4-0.5
  • 0.5-0.6
  • 0.6-0.7
  • 0.7-0.8
  • 0.8-0.9
  • 0.9-1.0

0 voters

2

The preciction coming out as negative won’t mean that Ampyx Power has failed completely.
They might just test and iterate longer, for example.

They themselves have not made a prediction to my knowledge on when they are going to do what.

3

@Kitewinder, @PierreB those are some gloomy predictions. Should I have put the question differently?

4

Yes because there is many questions. So total probability to answer yes to all of them become really low

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5

Hi @Tom,
@tallakt and me were right about a high level of funding predictions for:

The question here looks clear also, and could be sustained with https://www.ampyxpower.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Public-Summary-Final.pdf. The predictions can be more difficult as it is an utility-scale long term prediction. If there are no reliable news about AP 3, waiting time for AP 4 could be very long.

To be clear I think crosswind AWES suffer from:

  • Small power/land or sea and space use ratio, taking account of difficult secondary use due to fast moving tether with high tension.

  • Irregular power due to different tether angles during the flight figure.

  • Safety concerns for a 3.5 tons wing going fast with only an active automated control.

Adding for yoyo:

  • recovery phase requiring gaps within a kite-farm, or a temporary storage for a single unity.
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6

I’m not clued up enough on the specifics of Ampyx for my vote to be worth casting.
Would be good info to see a timeline trend line of their previous model peak powers

7

I don’t think they’ve released any data on power of previous models.
Ah come on, just guess! You can change it until the end of the year when new info comes in.

8

We should have a prediction market running for this.

Right now I think there is a quite large step necessary going from a demo on a grassy field to a 2 MW rig in the North Sea. Still, I wish them best of luck and all my hopes for their success. The first utility scale AWE could make a dent in the global warming issue, and that should be a big carrot to follow.

Next, even a 10% likelyhood of success could be enough to support an investment, if the upside is big enough. This is not my actual predictment, just for stating the point.

1 Like
9
1 Like