OK so this vertical-axis turbine is supposed to operate at half the tip-speed ratio of a ânormalâ vertical-axis turbine? That would imply 4x the solidity of a regular vertical-axis turbine (4x as much blade in the circle) which would likely cost 4x as much, and be less efficient to boot.
One aspect of âThe Professor Crackpot Syndromeâ just occurred to me as I was out watering palm trees just now (Weâre supposed to have record heat for this date today).
Iâll use the example of âAstroâ Teller who was in charge of âGoogle-Xâ or whatever they called their experimental branch that bought Makani.
I read or watched some of his reasoning, and in my humble opinion, it sounded a bit âout-to-lunchâ. I came away unimpressed. Broad, sweeping âideasâ, supposedly so wise as to be considered âvisionaryâ, to the point where it would be up to other, less-âvisionaryâ underlings to flesh out the details. Result? Makani might be an example: Everything sounded great, until the details emerged, at which point it turned into âWell maybe this isnât going to work out as well as we thoughtâ.
The history of replacing the standard wind turbine with something else has a pretty-much 100.000% failure rate. Maybe there are a few promising tidbits here and there (which I like to think I may have demonstrated), but, overall, no completely new design paradigms have taken hold, and in fact, most have overwhelmingly failed.
There are known symptoms: âVertical-axisâ is one of them. Anyone promoting vertical-axis turbines should know this going in. Yet they are endlessly proposed and often built. There seems to be a certain personality-type involved, and I believe the root of their often-misguided thinking can be attributed to what is called âsingle-factor analysisâ. That means a single aspect of a complex and inter-related set of factors is considered to the exclusion of all the other factors, and then even ignored when that single factor becomes problematic. An example is the typical process of saying vertical-axis turbine are better âbecause they donât have to aimâ, then introducing an âimprovedâ âcycloturbineâ that DOES require aim to constantly adjust blade pitch as the blades transit their circle.
Another example might be fixating on one factor affecting global temps, such as the level of a single trace gas, without truly considering the whole picture, as the former head of the IPCC points out.
Anyway, it is interesting that people still talk about how âsmartâ and âtalentedâ the team hired for the Makani effort was supposed to be, contrasted with the results.
Now donât get me wrong: I get excited thinking about vertical-axis turbine designs too. You never know when someone could come up with a design that so maximizes the good points, that it successfully overcomes the bad points. But I will say, I donât think maximizing friction with the water to the point of creating a giant 2-mile-wide oceanic whirlpool is a sensible approach. To me it is dripping with problems, including everything from the improbable scale on the order of 0.1% of the distance across the entire ocean, to the idea that friction/drag with the water would be intentionally maximized and called âenergy storageâ⌠How about âenergy wasteageâ?
One thing about the internet: It lets everyone be an instant âAstro Tellerâ - soooooo visionary that one is never expected to actually build or demonstrate anything, just spew out such âamazingâ ideas that someone less âvisionaryâ can fill in the pesky details.
Iâd say why not build such a system at a workably smaller scale, and demonstrate whatever supposed superiority is inherent in the concept, THEN suggest it should be built a bit larger. One step at a time.
Which reminds me of another aspect of âThe syndromeâ: âWe have to build it REALLY BIG or nobody will take it seriously!â
Well, honestly, I do not take this idea seriously right now. At a minimum, Iâd be trying to minimize water drag to the maximum extent, rather than trying to spin half the ocean and calling it âenergy storageâ.