Negativity and predictions

Regarding this discussion:
Since I currently am the moderator in this forum some might want to know my stance.
I don’t know what has been going on before and thus will restrict myself to general statements.

I welcome criticism and also pessimism. The latter helps to see modes of failure and prevent them.
Often one speaks of “constructive criticism”. I think one can also say things like “I predict a 0.01 chance of success” without stating reasons. That isn’t really constructive but valuable for seeing how accurately that person can predict developments. The general tone should be positive and friendly. A culture in which one can discuss modes of failure and slim chances of success in a friendly and encouriging manner would be nice.

I’m a big fan of predictions. Especiallly if they are clear and can be resolved. If someone predicts success of factor 0 of the projects while someone else predicts factor 1 of success and it resolves to 0.1 the person predicting 0 was more right. If the question was if there was any success with the same predictions the person predicting 1 would have been completely accurate. So it’s important to state predictions clearly.
There’s this prediction site: Metaculus It tries to predict the future accurately from all the user predictions. I would also like to ask for predictions about AWES there. However forumulating one is difficult. Can any of you think of a good question? Something like: “Will there be a an awes operating 0.6 of the time in September 2019?”

It would be fun to put this in a prediction market like Amoveo, Augur or Bitcoin Hivemind… Placing money on your opinions tends to make them a whole lot more accurate

Im not sure if the time frame 1 yr is enough for AWE though. If the timeframe was 20 yr and the question was «Profitable at the time of resolution considering financial costs», my bet would be on yes