For power generation with AWE in general, for flexible kites, SkySails and yo-yo systems in particular, this will be the last year of truth (at least in a next future): now or never.
Why exactly? Did something change?
Years of similar claims followed by no announcement of any realized energy production lead to lower AWE expectations.
But why does this year mark the last for AWE pumping? Why not next year or a later year? In my book, its not over until its over. At Kitemill we are not slowing down…
I think the lack of viability has been showing for some time. This lack is much more important than I expected: it affects efficiency before problems such as security, reliability, maintenance, quality of electricity produced, secondary use,space occupation…
I was thinking of the yo-yo mode because it is the most studied while being probably one of the most promising. To my knowledge no announcement (including that of the topic) mentions an electricity production carried out over a significant period. I think that after a start that seemed promising, we don’t see any major progress.
And concerning the other systems we also see a stop or slowdown of an apparent progression, in spite of the pursuing of scientific studies.
I am afraid Mike Barnard’s prediction will come true.
Perhaps also suitable materials such like light rigid or durable flexible ones are not still available. It may be that more suitable materials come while AWE companies are still in the process of intense research. It is also possible that these same companies end up branching out into niche markets.
I think it is wrong to conclude something impossible because it hasnt been done. AWE is super difficult.
How many electric cars flopped before we saw Nissan Leaf and Tesla?
Your logic I believe is flawed. Nothing happening proves neither yes or no. Only a working rig can change the matter… even if 100 years pass…
Hope you are right. I think, however, that communication should focus on what has been done, otherwise disinterest will continue to cover everything.
Perhaps one way to rekindle interest in electricity generation AWE would be to stir up controversy over which methods to use.
I doubt investors will still wait 100 years to see if AWE can give a little something, while significant investments have already taken place. There are so many opportunities in energy… A lot of triumphant announcements have already been lost in results which seem at first to condemn this path.
What are you actually trying to do here? I don’t think investors need to be protected from AWE? If you dont find AWE an interesting option better just leave it alone.
Makani undoubtly made finding money in AWE more difficult for the time being, perhaps forever. Which is perfectly reasonable.
But to extrapolate that into «it will never happen» is not reasonable, imho
This is not what I wrote.
This is not a valid argument. I could object: if you don’t find an interesting solution in AWE, just leave AWE alone.The follow-up review of the evolution of AWE corroborates what I write.
«For power generation with AWE in general, for flexible kites, SkySails and yo-yo systems in particular, this will be the last year of truth (at least in a next future): now or never.»
…the last year of truth? How shoud that be interpreted?
It is simple: either an important achievement is coming this year, or the AWE project for power generation will be forgotten if it is not already. The reason is obvious: there have been too many unanswered announcements. Only a report of electricity production over a significant period could change the situation. And moral and financial credit are exhausted. In addition to Barnard’s predictions (see above) after Makani’s failure see also:
The comment is right: no more dithyrambic articles. Perhaps the official AWE circles should turn more towards rotary devices like those of @Rodread and @dougselsam, while pursuing R&D on their prototypes. Perhaps also, as pointed by Doug, usual wind energy issues should be taken account.
Your conclusion does not follow from your argument. The number of press releases for an idea has only very limited predictive power for the viability of a technology. Perhaps press releases tell you more about the need for funding of a company.
To determine if a technology is viable, you could try to do an analysis from first principles, but that is almost undoable. Instead you try to empirically find solutions, by doing simulations and experiments, like not a small number of companies and universities are doing.
If you want to be pessimistic about AWE, I would seek it in it having to compete with other technologies. You could easily imagine in 20 or 50 years other technologies have become so cheap and accessible that nothing else can compete.
Citation needed. I’m only seeing investment in renewable energy growing.
This is only your opinion. I do not conclude anything, so your argument does not stand. In the other hand my explain stands: repetitive announces that are relayed by the press such like AWE as the future of wind energy, lead (now led) to the loss of credibility after more than ten years, and when there is still no measured power over a significant time. As a preliminary result, the tone of the press is no longer dithyrambic as I mentioned.
Done: see the links above. If you think it is not enough I am waiting your citation of a current funding as important as for Makani.
- Is it a percentage? Is it in absolute value? Citation needed.
- The effective production is the first element of appreciation, not investment as such.