Several years ago, I was “on the fence” as to whether Minesto could succeed with its underwater version of Makani’s “drag” device (to use the erroneous terminology of Loyd).
On the one hand, being underwater removed the “gravity problem”, which had been a main problem for Makani. But on the other hand, both of the guys associated with running the old forum were decidedly optimistic toward the ultimate success of Minesto, citing the experience of the team’s background with Saab, designing jet fighters(?)
One thing I knew from wind energy - a background in other technologies, even seemingly similar, held no advantage in wind energy, and may have even been a net negative, because it gave unwarranted confidence to people who were still, ultimately, newbies subject to making all the typical newbie mistakes.
I decided to “get off the fence” and “go out on a limb”!
I declared publicly that, due to this pair, with their track record of wrong statements alone, I was officially predicting the failure of Minesto. I was basing my prediction for failure on nothing but these two guys’ predictions for success - no other reason was needed. I said the only thing wrong with it, as with so many “gamechanger” inventions, was its main feature - in this case, using a kite.
Besides the potential problems of managing a hollow enclosure full of high-voltage electrical equipment under salt water, and the potential problems of tether drag and wear, in my mind, I had no better negative indicator than the statements of approval by these two characters.
Yet I went out on a limb, and said I thought Minesto would fail, based only on the prediction of success by these two.
More recently, I seem to recall Roddy, and maybe someone else from this current group of online AWE fans, reiterate their own approvals or predictions of success for Minesto.
Well, here are the recent facts: After their recent “successful” testing, Minesto has laid off half of their employees. They’ve decided to try to raise more cash by diluting their present shareholders, at which point their stock dropped in half.
Click on the 6-month chart:
Minesto AB (publ) (MINEST.ST) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance
My observation now, from reading a few press-releases, is that they’ve hit the typical point where their “innovation” is not bearing economic fruit, in the sense of providing more affordable electricity, after all.
As with wind energy, there are apparently “a million ways” to generate “some amount” of electricity, “at some cost”. Only the likelihood of achieving such lower cost will be considered a success. Otherwise, you have another “blooper”, destined for the underwater version of the La Brea Tar Pits. All predicted. We will see how it all goes, eh? :)))