12 Oct 2023by Riviera News
Fossil fuel demand and production is still outpacing the supply of clean energy in ’absolute terms’, with peak oil still ahead says DNV chief executive Remi Eriksen
Over the last five years, fossil fuels have met half of the new demand for energy globally, despite a rapid buildout of renewable capacity, according to DNV’s latest annual report on overall progress in moving away from fossil fuels.
In its Energy Transition Outlook 2023, DNV found that between 2017-2022 renewables met 51% of the energy demand that arose in addition to what the world had required up to that point, while original demand and the other 49% of new demand was supplied by fossil fuels.
“Renewables are still just meeting increased demand rather than replacing fossil fuels, and in absolute terms, fossil fuel supply is still growing. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C warming is less likely than ever,” DNV said.
According to the class society, reaching the Paris Agreement’s goals would require CO2 emissions to halve by 2030. DNV forecasts this will not happen until after 2050, with CO2 emissions predicted to be only 4% lower than 2023 by 2030 and 46% lower by midcentury. Peak oil, or the point at which fossil fuel demand starts to decline is set to be in 2024, according to DNV.
“Globally, the energy transition has not started, if, by transition, we mean that clean energy replaces fossil energy in absolute terms,” said Mr Eriksen. “Clearly, the energy transition has begun at a sector, national and community level, but globally, record emissions from fossil energy are on course to move even higher next year.”