Shipping is using ever more fossil fuels - no peak oil.

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Riviera - News Content Hub - DNV CEO: ‘the energy transition has not started’ (rivieramm.com)

DNV CEO: ‘the energy transition has not started’

12 Oct 2023by Riviera News

Fossil fuel demand and production is still outpacing the supply of clean energy in ’absolute terms’, with peak oil still ahead says DNV chief executive Remi Eriksen
Over the last five years, fossil fuels have met half of the new demand for energy globally, despite a rapid buildout of renewable capacity, according to DNV’s latest annual report on overall progress in moving away from fossil fuels.

In its Energy Transition Outlook 2023, DNV found that between 2017-2022 renewables met 51% of the energy demand that arose in addition to what the world had required up to that point, while original demand and the other 49% of new demand was supplied by fossil fuels.

“Renewables are still just meeting increased demand rather than replacing fossil fuels, and in absolute terms, fossil fuel supply is still growing. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C warming is less likely than ever,” DNV said.

According to the class society, reaching the Paris Agreement’s goals would require CO2 emissions to halve by 2030. DNV forecasts this will not happen until after 2050, with CO2 emissions predicted to be only 4% lower than 2023 by 2030 and 46% lower by midcentury. Peak oil, or the point at which fossil fuel demand starts to decline is set to be in 2024, according to DNV.

“Globally, the energy transition has not started, if, by transition, we mean that clean energy replaces fossil energy in absolute terms,” said Mr Eriksen. “Clearly, the energy transition has begun at a sector, national and community level, but globally, record emissions from fossil energy are on course to move even higher next year.”

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Related from the same publication today:

Shipyard capacity shortfall jeopardies transition of existing fleet to future fuels

11 Oct 2023by John Snyder

A severe shortfall in global shipyard capacity could jeopardise the timely conversion of existing ships to burn alternative fuels, leaving as many as 20,000 vessels still operating on fossil fuels in 2050
According to the eye-opening Engine Retrofit Report from Lloyd’s Register, retrofitting a significant number of the 9,000 and 12,900 large merchant vessels estimated to be part of the global fleet in 2030 will rapidly accelerate the maritime energy transition. But there are only a limited number of repair yards currently capable of performing such conversions.

LR technology director Claudene Sharp-Patel said, “Decarbonising the existing fleet is crucial for reducing the maritime industry’s greenhouse gas emissions. Without significant progress in this area, there could be as many as 20,000 commercial vessels relying on fossil fuels by 2050”.

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OK now, THIS “story” I am not so sure I believe: You’ve probably heard about the azimuthal thrusters on ships used for maneuvering in tight spaces, right? Some newer versions resemble vertical-axis wind turbines, a merry-go-round of parallel blades sticking down into the water?
Well, THIS company says PROPELLERS ARE ONLY 70% EFFICIENT!!!
THEY say their vertical-axis propellers can be more like 90% efficient. So they claim they can deliver 20% better efficiency, but that making one big enough to propel a ship would be difficult.
What I get from this is, there could be huge savings in fuel use if they could improve propeller efficiency!

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More on increasing ship propulsive efficiency.
(Funny, but they don’t mention kites or magnus/flettner sails!)

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We should keep trying, but looking at this, with a realistic estimate of timeline, impact and probability of success, we are still going to have [further] global warming in 2050 it seems… brace for impact

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Hey you never know, the weather is always changing. It starts underground - magma is the real weather. The continents are like clouds floating on the magma atmosphere. The magma pushes the continents around like clouds in the sky, and when the continents collide with each other, or with heavier oceanic crust, that changes the surface contours, which determines ocean currents, which determine what we think of as “weather” - the final effect of all that - how it affects the outermost layer of it all - the air. Two million years ago, the current ice age started when the Isthmus of Panama rose up between North and South America, cutting off the supply of cool Pacific water from the Gulf of Mexico. Result? The Gulf of Mexico became like a tropical jacuzzi hot tub, without the cooling effect of waters from the Pacific. The suddenly hot Gulf of Mexico turns into a Northern-running current, The Gulf Stream, which caused excess snow to fall on Greenland and maybe Europe, (bringing warm water vapor North) which started this ice-age, which coincides with the evolution of mankind - we got out of the trees when all the leaves fell off, then developed things like fire, clothing, shelter, tools, weapons - ya know… So all you need is a change in the second-topmost layer, ocean currents, to change the weather. That could happen anytime. Winter can return. Ya never know! :slight_smile:

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At least youre not counting on the stuff presented in the CNN article to pan out :slight_smile:

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Starting with the butterfly effect, it all gets very complicated. Lately, the meme is a slowing of the Gulf Stream could cause a cooling in Europe. Meanwhile, the whole discussion is slanted. for example, even using the term “green” is backwards: There is nothing more “green” for the planet than CO2, as used in greenhouses to enhance the greenery, and as noted by NASA to be greening the planet. Have man’s activities affected the climate so far? Seems possible. Cutting forests for firewood, grazing domesticated animals like goats, slash & burn agriculture going back thousands of years - have such factors played into the formation of deserts? Do deserts reflect sunlight, cooling the planet? What ocean currents could change? Nobody really knows the entire extent of all the inter-related factors.

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They use this type on both ends of the ferry between Lerwick and Bressay
I beat that boat across the harbour easily on a windsurfer