https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/1bb2g1z/jpmorgan_says_its_ai_cashflow_tool_cut_human_work/ku7e6nc/
PV engineer here. Right now, PV prices are collapsing due to massive oversupply. It’s part of an expansion cycle that the industry has gone through a few times, but mostly no one outside of solar noticed because it was a relatively small segment compared to the rest of energy. However, this time, we’re at a scale (~500 GW/yr) where everyone will notice and energy markets as a whole will be increasingly disrupted.
China is in the middle of DOUBLING its capacity of N-type cells and modules. The new capacity alone is more than global demand. By the end of the year, they’ll have roughly 3-4x more capacity than current end markets are ready for. Prices are falling dramatically (this could be a 30-50% reduction year) and will continue to do so until either new demand is created or older supply is taken offline.
Solar is already the cheapest source of energy in many countries. It’s projected that it will be the cheapest source of energy in every country in the world (except maybe Norway) before the end of the decade. 1 c/kWh is not out of the question for high irradiance projects this decade. It could be the median price by 2050.
I’m not saying it’s going to be a perfect outcome though. It’s going to be messy. PV may eat the profits of every producer on a grid, causing most fuel based systems to go offline. This sounds great, until you need backup. Grid regulators will need to tread carefully.
BloombergNEF says global solar installations could hit 574 GW this year – pv magazine International
Today in Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)