The no market Hypothesis

I dont think for the niche markets that I am thinking about that it will be all one use case. A lot will boil down to the quality of the sales organisation, and the practicality and usefulness of early AWE products. I think it would be very difficult to predict how large this could be, except place a «betz limit» based on the amount of diesel generators in use.

This is the most important question I think.

Any business needs to do a:

Since we have quite a few people here trying to develop small systems, it would make sense to do a competitor analysis here for systems like these. I suggest starting threads on competitor analyses for small scale systems, for medium scale, and for large scale. I’d be most interested in the analysis for small scale systems.

6 posts were merged into an existing topic: Off-topic discussion split from “The no Market Hypothesis”

Yes rod, small medium and large scale market analysis would be really interesting to do.
Although it is really difficult as there is no jurisprudence with awes.
Tallak, did you guys at kite mill take into account the possibilities that the market might be small or even inexistant? ( no matter product size).
One of my main interrogations is : will we (AWES Developper) achieve to deliver a product useful enough and easy to use enough so that people will actually use it. And I think the question also remains for Kitemill because even if you target grid market, at first that will be more like remote communities. And systems have to be easy to use or they may simply not be used.
Rod what plans do you have for commercialization ? what market did you aim ?
Same for tallak , how long did you think it will takes you to deliver a test unit to a end user? do you have a price target for your 100Kw machine ?
We at kitewinder have been granted by the french government for a 3 years development program. Second phase will be about developping a 1Kw range product with a price target that shall not exceed 5K Euros public pricing. We will also explore high altitude at that time as our design simply need a longer belt and and augmented winch capacity . altitude aim : 1000 meters . We won’t loose efficiency with height as our belt is static in the sky, only friction with air is slightly increased ( 1.2 mm belt travelling at around 40 km/h )

Hi. I have started my connection to Kitemill to inform any readers of my bias. I am not the official voice of Kitemill. These questions are so directly tied to Kitemill that I cannot give my quick opinions on this.

If you are really curious send me a PM and I’ll ask the CEO if he would mind making a statement in these questions.

That being said, I havent worked much with the economic dimension of AWE, nor am I active in marketing, sales and such.

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I’m not Rod. I’m one of the cool kids ^.^

I’ve gone ahead and created two topics that I will develop over time. I hope others will also contribute to them:

That’s a common misconception. Your competition is current outdoor advertising and small electricity generating products. You can learn loads and loads by studying them.

Ouch excuse me. You misunderstood me. I am not saying that there is no similar product for energy production like battery or solar portable power. I say there is no similar use case we’re you would have a similar setup, restriction in usable area. Something users may refer to when it comes to buy something.

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Is there a need to go that high? What is the benefit of going to 1000 meters vs 500 meters vs 200 meters?

Are you allowed to fly that high? I think in many countries you aren’t allowed to fly a kite higher than 100 meters?

I’m thinking about a system that is similar to yours, so I’m interested in this. I’ve stayed away from thinking about going too high because of the aviation authority restrictions on that. Also there’s the extra cost of the tether.

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Now the price of a 5 kW mobile generator is about 1K Euros (https://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-listing/B01N80F68E/ref=dp_olp_all_mbc?ie=UTF8&condition=all).

And the price of a 1 kW wind turbine is about 500 Euros + the mast (https://www.amazon.com/Ista-Breeze-Windgenerator-Turbine-Generator/dp/B07H4MXLR1/ref=sr_1_5?ie=UTF8&qid=1546038827&sr=8-5&keywords=1+kw+wind+turbine).

In spite of this there are potential AWE markets where other solutions are not possible (no sun or no wind at ground level) or not available (no fuel) or not clean enough (fuel).

Also the intermittency of wind power, even lesser using AWES in high altitude, requires storage means above all in remote zones. So a possibility would be a mix fuel + AWE generator in a single machine.

The interest in going higher to me is not about more available power, it is about quasi permanent energy production which is my Awe holy graal. As said Pierre storage is inherent to mini grid but once you have a constant power production, batteries can be reduced in a drastic way.
I don’t think thing regarding energy shall be looked at power level. You can buy a 10 kW wind turbine and get 1 kwh per day out of it. Or you could get a 0.1 kw product and get 2kwh per day.
Regarding operating area, Pierre talks about places where wind do not blow at ground level but do higher. Pierre do you know such places? Do you have a example of such places?

Regarding flight regulation, in France it is 150 meters, in international water such as island, thing might by really more permissive.
We will perform first test with an early adopters in a French over seas territory this summer.

In the forests, there is wind and sun above the trees.

Don’t forget solar! Comes rigid with glass and light and flexible for caravans and boats.
Much steadier resource.

I’d say the price has to drop significantly. 1kW for 5k€

A small AWES would need to have a unique selling point (USP)

  • More power in very specific windy places with little sunlight.
  • Packing size.
    Yepp, that’s all I can think of.

Sidenote: Wondering if there is a simple periodical crosswind program, that can be safely flown without automation and risking anything that could increase power to a turbine close to the lifter. Just a little motor that pullls either line of a two-liner alternatingly via a timing belt.

I’d say solar doesn’t produce much in winter in Northern and Western Europe, and residential wind doesn’t produce period, if I recall correctly.

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But taking the sun is not good for the trees. So AWE looks to be a possibility.

The take-off/landing station would be settled in the summit of trees, then a second belt would connect it to the ground generator station.

Beside it Kiwee-one would perhaps be a suitable mean to study the canopy, and also ancien sites.

Luke I’m thinking about what you say and that is a way we will for sure explore later. Not saying that we will go cross wind one day but it could be a possibility in between frontwind and crosswind.
Pierre, it seems to be to be irrealistic. Any kite flyer will tell you wanting to use kite where trees are is improbable.

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I agree. The permanent energy production should be a main concern.
The intermittency and the low capacity factor (20% onshore, 30 % offshore, 40 or 50 % far offshore on floating platforms) of traditional windmills are big concerns.

As example the German wind-coal mix produces a lot Co² emissions that the wind doesn’t decrease. Generally one knows more and more that any mix with renewables don’t work well. One reason is that the thermal plants should work regularly. And there is no available clean and cheap storage nor a world smart grid.

With AWES a higher capacity factor could be reached in high altitude wind, particularly using Low Level Jets (LLJ) (https://ams.confex.com/ams/21BLT/webprogram/Paper248567.html).
As LLJ are changing, a mobile AWES on a truck could be suitable to follow it, realizing a near full capacity factor. This is perhaps another irrealistic idea as it would work if energy distribution or a grid connection is possible in each step.

Please see the “Radeau des cimes” from Francis Hallé: http://www.radeau-des-cimes.org/the-treetop-raft/?lang=en. Replacing it with a fixed AWES take-off/landing station then connecting it to the ground generator with a second belt. Probably it is difficult and expensive but not impossible.

As the tether is very long and the AWE system becomes very powerful the uninhabited zones (seas, deserts, forests) are preferable, and even more so for crosswind AWES where the tether goes fast with huge tension.

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No. Eg for a camping trip it could be realistic to launch the kite in an opening [between trees], perhaps even eunning slightly to get the kite into good wind. Id agree its not for the average consumer though

Also you need to solve that pilot kites with limited L/D have a pretty restricted max altitude. If you want jets Im thinking altitudes of km+. I think you could expect a decent powerup at 2-300 m altitude. Im not sure if its very relevant for the kitewinder though. Getting th kite down is going to be a real hassle with 500 m tether / 250 m altitude

What people don’t understand is the engineering finesse to create a wind energy system that can even survive, at any cost, let alone be an economical energy solution. Here’s a TV clip about some French turbines (Vergnet) installed in New York State, costing millions of dollars, and even though they are still almost new, they don’t even run.
https://www.wgrz.com/article/news/local/thruway-windmills-not-working/71-540578438
Imagine the amount of talent hired to create and sell machines that don’t even work. Meanwhile we sit here hypothesizing about increasing capacity factors by increasing the operating height while we struggle to even show a workable concept, wondering if there’s a market. Of course there’s a market. You just need to have something worthy of purchase and someone will buy it.

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I am getting access denied here

Alternative story?

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