Predicting the success of AWE

Analysis
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Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100 kW be sold before 2022?

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2578/will-an-airborne-wind-energy-system-of-at-least-100kw-be-sold-before-2022/

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This is a large prediction platform. Very interesting concept. I submitted the question. Any editing suggestions?

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I think the question is very broad and with that you are asking much from the reader, either a company insider’s knowledge of each company, or to research each company. You could help the reader by adding a company’s achievements in building and testing and the company’s own claims, for example. Add some info to fuel discussion, as that is what you are really after, not really the predictions.

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This topic reminds Ampyx Power AP-4 prediction topic.

The problem is not to predict the success of AWE but to achieve it.

An essential point of appreciation is to know the degree of importance of the software in the whole system, most companies considering software as the key to viability. If a software can become perfect enough to allow achieving the production phases 24 hours a day and 7 days a week all the year by using the known rigid wings without any crash even within a kite-farm, then AWE success could be a possibility.

Otherwise, you must rework the architectures, waiting for better material lifetime if you use (possibly lattice of) flexible wings, or conceiving means to realize networks of small rigid blades, or other…

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May this promise come true!
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Well said Pierre!
The predictions that come to mind include:
1.) “Dr.” Peter Harrop and IDTechExec or whatever they call it predicts a 200 kW (?) system will be available by 2019
2) Makani will be powering the grid in Hawaii to the tune of hundred of homes by… is it 2015?
3) Altaeros will be helping to power the grid in a remote region of Alaska in 2015(?) and is developing their technology in partnership with Oman and Mitsubishi, also developing a blimp-supported communications hub for the masses by… is it 2018? 2017?
4) Bill Gates predicts, was it a 10% chance AWE is the big energy breakthrough the world is hoping for?
5) Minesto will be feeding the grid with their underwater version of Makani by, is it 2018? 2019?
Gosh there are so many great predictions - I’m sure I’m leaving most of them out!
OMG there are so many more