In my view there are two chances of this happening in the foreseeable future: Zero, none, and a teensy possibility that indirect kite propulsion by way of on-board kite generated electricity driving a conventional propeller may work. […] Peter Lynn, Ashburton NZ, February '09
PS, I’m an optimist
I note that Kite Power for Commercial Shipping is not on your list of ten advancements. The same for AWE for electricity generation (e-AWES), now after 15 years of intense research and a favorable environment. No AWES marketed (apart from Kiwee and perhaps some unities for SkySails).
It is true that you cited 10 new technologies in primary areas. The kite itself cannot be part of it, since it comes from an old technology, although an AWES of which one of the components is the kite can use one of these technologies that you mention: in this case we would have an application of one or more new technologies to the kite, such as Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) for example.
It is an issue for e-AWES. There are many other issues: reliability, efficiency, maintenance, land and space use…
I think that’s the reality. I am not saying that any other development such as e-AWES is not possible, but is unlikely goal under current conditions: a Copernican revolution would be necessary to already identify the problems of implementation and operation and not restrict them to a simple problem of Control. For the rest I refer to Peter Lynn’s analysis which still holds up.
Do not underestimate the fact that certain remarks which might not seem encouraging at first glance, could also promote a boost in the development of compound technologies such as AWE offers.
And why would it be? This list is comprised of fields detractors said were not feasible but are now abject reality. I am suggesting AWES may someday belong on that list.
In terms of Commercial Shipping, I would have thought this obvious. Global shipping relies on logistics and time constraints. Not exactly conducive for direct wind power. But indirectly as a part of a green ecosystem for the electrical grid.
You could add “folding kite” you could add “Kite furling device” you could add “cheaper and more inexpensive kites” you could add “composite kites” you could add “commercially available 100 square meter kites”
Reliability (Control), Efficiency (control), maintenance (better not crash: Control) Land and space use (Control) (kites sharing the same airspace)
I agree with @PierreB here. Control is a big issue. Though other issues are also hard. For instance, after being able to mount your kite on a sailboat, you will face issues with safety, handling low and gusty wind, wear, reliability, high wind etc etc. Having solved the sunny days is a really good start and a big step. But its not like once it works, the work is done.
Also saying controls is the only issue masks that quite a few of the efforts that are and have been are based on ideas that are unlikely to work and maybe could be proven impossible except assuming groundbreaking new technology.
I think there is a difference in saying this would work if we solved some issues (maybe fusion energy) and saying this would work if we could reduce the mass by 75% compared to the lighest materials currently available (mayne Makani), and sound is not an issue, and it can be made much cheaper, and so on. Those kind of advances are just quite unlikely.
I think most things on that list (electric vehicles, brain computer interfaces, cripr) did not have that amount of magic needed. Just money + talent
What are you thinking of here in terms of examples?
I think in hindsight we can say these things were easy… or all they needed was money + talent… I don’t know how much has been spent on Airborne wind compared to those other industries/fields. Not to say there is not enough talent… but we as a species have made it to the moon.
I would not soley classity these as control issues; for instance safety could be issues of mechanical design or law (regulatory). Wear could be related to how control is done but in the end its a matter of maintenance and material and design. And so on
Tesla company was just getting into producing a car for general use about the same time the current AWE hype cycle was getting started. They have made a lot of progress, have the number one selling car in the world (Model Y), and powered a lot of homes, in the ensuing time.
Its not on the market. You can buy the upgrade cheap awaiting the software when its ready.
Well at least here in Norway the newesr auto mode is locked. Maybe in the US its better, but as far as I am aware even that one is not ready for primetime
You can do AWE with no one around, you cannot drive with no one around, so AWE is probably closer, if there is funding. Or it is already here, just with some problems and it’s not competitive yet.
The software required for self driving is in itself a huge undertaking. The software for AWE is probably a lot simpler, but then you have other concerns.
Hard to say which of the two is harder as neither have been done yet. The car has seen a lot more effort put into it relative to AWE. Still, the car seems a lot closer to completion
Hark! They promised me an autonomous vehicle and it doesn’t even exist yet! They’ve spent years and still haven’t succeeded! Might as well stop trying, right? /s
“It does not turn a Tesla into a self-driving vehicle nor does it make a vehicle autonomous.”
“Musk’s repeated claims that autonomous vehicles were just “a year” or so away are now part of Tesla lore”
This guy keeps promising… I dont think we are getting any closer… anyone care to place a wager?
Im being sarcastic, but even in light of the previous promises, no one would bet that full self driving is not going to happen in the next ten years… If anyone is willing to disagree I would definitely place a formal wager.
