Slow Chat III

I looked up this guy and sent him the following email:

Hey dude, I happen to know a bit about wind turbines.

I just saw a video with you showing great “concern” describing a wind turbine blade “as long as an aircraft carrier”.

Wind Turbine Malfunctions Near Nantucket: Challenges in Wind Energy Financing and Reliability | Watch (msn.com)

Those blades are probably about a quarter of the length you stated.

Yes, what we call “windidiots” don’t even know the difference between blade length and rotor diameter, and even then, you still overstated the blade length by about 4 times.

One more example of the complete ignorance masquerading as fact, when outsiders to wind energy ever dare to expose that ignorance by speaking about it.

The look of concern on your face is comical to those of us in the know!

Oh, and “Editor-in Chief” - that sounds important!!!

I’ll have to remember that. Maybe I can name myself “Editor-in-Chief” of something. I won’t tell them “I’m also the Janitor!”

So I’m thinking “I’ve heard this guy’s name many times in the last - so now what the heck is “Climate Crisis 247” ???”

So I looked up “ClimateCrisis247” and the first article I found was by - once again, the “Editor-in-Chief” (and apparently the janitor) Douglas McIntyre!

Rivian Truck Fire Will Kill Quarterly Earnings - Climate Crisis 247

OK dude, this article is supposedly about Rivian, but it shows a photo of a tesla Cybertruck! Duh!

And as I read through it,

The first sentence says: “Rivian lost over 50 trucks that burned in one of its lots.”

In the next line we read: “It is not clear whether any trucks were damaged”

OK so 50 trucks burned, but it’s not clear if any trucks were damaged? Make up your mind!

The next paragraph starts out misspelling the name “Rivian” as “Rivan”.

A few lines later the same name is misspelled once again as “Ravian” as in “Ravian can’t afford a misstep.” (But apparently you can!)

So thanks for the “news”, but it might be nice if you tidied up the “facts” you seem so concerned about, as well as getting your pictures to match your stories, and if you still don’t have “spellcheck” implemented, to get the names of companies spelled right, I can’t imagine why - isn’t spellcheck everywhere these days, even if you don’t ask for it?

4 posts were split to a new topic: How to Find Literature on Airborne Wind Energy

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Turbine Incident Takes Place at Dogger Bank Wind Farm - North American Windpower (nawindpower.com)

Looks like GE Vernova (new name for an old business) had another blade failure, this time in Doggerland (Atlantis?)

OK, so now GE can;t make wind turbines that don;t fall apart, Boeing can’t make reliable airplanes or space capsules anymore - it’s the attack of the bean-counters! They come in to take over any legitimate business, sell off the assets to extract the value, and leave an empty shell that can barely function. Wow. Seems like all the wind energy companies are in trouble lately.

Sorry I am just taunting you, probably wasting your time

It’s OK, I’ve been watching a few videos lately on the problems with “terraforming Mars”, and there are many dealbreaker aspects I never thought of, in addition to the ways I’ve thought might work, and all the problems I was already aware of.

I’ve always thought there is probably life on Mars, and even the moon and other celestial bodies, at a certain depth where the regolith is warm and wet. “Germs and worms” is what I call it.

I call the alternative “the sterile universe theory”, which is that the entire universe is completely sterile, with no life of any kind anywhere but here. That was what official “science” believed when I was a kid. of course, going back a few years before that, even scientific papers had to be couched in religious language to even be published and avoid being strung up for heresy for even noticing that maybe it was the Earth that was spinning, rather than the whole rest of the universe!

Today, we’re not much further along - “science” is currently convinced that, rather than spinning, the whole universe is “expanding faster and faster”, inventing concepts like “dark matter” and “dark energy” to fit in with their theories that do not take into account the experience that many observations that seem “obvious”, (like the whole universe spinning around once per day) are optical illusions based on our lack of knowledge, rather than defining some whacked-out reality.

For well over a decade, I’ve owned the domain “martianlife.com”, as well as “developmars.com”, thinking someday, when they finally discover that there IS life on Mars, even if that life is US settling there, maybe the domains will be suddenly relevant. Beyond that, they could be used as platforms for thinking about what all the options might be.

I think Elon has a good point that we could currently be in a small window of time where we have the capability to even go to Mars, let alone settle people on that planet, which could form the fork in the road that determines whether humanity even has a chance to keep developing, versus degenerating into our previous, more primitive and animal-like state, which seems equally likely.

OK here’s the thing, Pierre: Going back to Makani, and all these proposed energy storage schemes, whacky windmills, etc., when companies raise millions and millions of dollars by selling “shares”, all the while bragging about their incredible technical acumen, those shareholders have the expectation that modern technology and computer-power is being used to properly analyze the current technology, and the proposed new technology, and to definitively ascertain reasons why the new technology ism in fact, better. Meanwhile the whole time, behind the curtain, it is nothing but one more “Professor Crackpot” with half-baked ideas, not fully even thought through by simple elementary- or junior-high-school math, let alone modern computation, with no real basis to even be modestly optimistic that it can be successfully developed.

Nope, it’s just a bunch of bumper-sticker-level talking points with no solid reasoning behind it. So these “co-flow jet”-powered “sails” may look interesting and make for nice renderings and check a lot of politically-expedient talking-point boxes, but is there any solid numbers to back up why their cost, weight, service requirements, added danger, operational demands on personnel, possibly lack of utility in many situations, and impediments to normal operation, loading, unloading clearance under bridges, etc. can fit in with the job the ship is tasked with efficiently performing.

So while these ideas can so easily pique the interest and curiosity, leading to excitement in the minds of so many of us excited about technology and gadgets of all kinds, there is a huge difference between an idea that truly “has legs” and the many that do not.

The really sad thing is when they raise so many millions of “other peoples’ money” when there was never anything behind the idea in the forst place. Goning back to Makani as a great example for us AWE people, with all their stated aero-expertise and engineering talent, with their calculative abilities so far beyond mere slide-rules and pencils, there is no excuse for them not knowing ahead of time how poorly their idea would actually operate. They obviously did not do their homework, and just wasted a lot of money and effort on stuff that could have been predicted to not work out.

Same with Skysails and kites pulling ships. That was one of my early inventive ideas way back in the 1980’s - my first CAD drawing was a kite pulling a ship. But I’m no0t dumb enough to think that just because the idea “sounds good” and “feels good”, that it “has legs” - in other words, a nice dream doesn’t always “pencil out” when the numbers are actually looked at. So when Skysails spends many years convincing the world that it is “onto something” and their concept is “a great kdea” that will “reduce fuel use”, "save the planet’ etc., then suddenly in what was it, 2022, sell of the whole idea and “pivot” to generating electricity on land using these same kites. one should be appropriately skeptical at that point of ANYTHING further Skysails says, about pretty much ANYTHING. At that point, to me, they are disproven as truthtellers, as accurate predictors of success, and of really knowing what the heck they are even really doing.

This is why I bring up so many “press-release breakthrough” announcements, complete with impressive renderings, to you guys. I hope people will pay attention long enough to watch the companies fail, and get clue. But doesn;t work. I can sit here and point out Company A is making promise B about technology C, and it is nothing but false reasoning, based on no experience, and they will fail. Then the company fails, and so does the next one, and the next one, etc., and yet you guys all just go on believing every new “press-release breakthrough” as though none of these endless failures ever happened, never recognizing the pattern.

We are all most obligated to debunk our own ideas first, knowing how easily it is for us humans to fool ourselves and others, by avoidance of actually getting up to speed on a technology, and running the numbers, before making false promises over unwarranted raw enthusiasm based on mere emotions.

So, co-flow jets, and related ideas, have been around for a long time now - many decades, right? And pretty much nobody is using the technology for obvious use-cases like STOL aircraft, or pretty much anything else, right? So why are they suddenly "a great idea’ when it comes to sails on giant steel ships? Because of some renderings and a press-release?

After all, weren’t “kites” offering the same magical solution for the past decade? How many ships are powered by kites today? Zero? Even the king, SKYSAILS, is no longer even interested. Are sails of ANY kind for giant steel ships even a good idea? iI so, could regular, old-fashioned cloth sails n answer, or would it be too hard to raise money for what might be more easily calculated to be a bad idea in the first place?

Last I knew, shipping is responsible for about 3% of global “emissions”, so if you could reduce that a little bit by minimally helping to power a small fraction of ships with heavy, expensive, resource-intensive, cumbersome, possibly-dangerous, energy-using “sails”, how much difference would it really make to the world?

Are we all suffering from “Global Warming Derangement Syndrome” (GWDS) ? :slight_smile:

That is not a huge number but the problem seems to be that cutting emissions in most sectors seems so difficult, that in order to cut emissions overall, every rock must be turned…

The moment other emissions were cut in half, this number would be 6%, so shopping cant expect to be excempt from emissions forever

I think the one with global warming derangement syndrome is you, as you are so obsessed with it not being real while the truth about that is clear in plain sight

What i see you seem to be conflating; one, the people trying to address co2 emissions will probably not succeed, and two, global warming is real and harmful.

Just because you are probably often right about number one, that does not change number two

Tallak: There are two kinds of “smart”:

  1. The ability to repeat what one has been told;
  2. the ability to think for oneself.

Where do you fall in that spectrum? :slight_smile:

Have you noticed all the “climate experts” have suddenly been acknowledging that one of the main recent requirements for shipping - reducing the sulfur content in fuels - has been causing global warming since the sulfur smoke was helping to keep the planet cool by reflecting sunlight?

Anyway, back to co-flow jets for ships, there is a difference between people able to analyze such “advances” in their totality to determine if they actually even make a difference, as opposed to people who just believe every “press-release breakthrough” and can only reason emotionally, from a “bumper-sticker-level” slogan-based viewpoint.

You probably had no doubt that sails for ships was another “great idea”, but where are they today. if you understand so much?

I dont see where you want that discussion to go? I would never admit to not being smart and I dont think anyone should. Everyone can only think with the tools given to them. Also, good luck in convincing someone «I told you so» is appropriate (if that is your aim, I have yet to see the light)

I think being smart could not easily be categorized as a level between these two.

I would rather discuss AWE :slight_smile:

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I didn;t say anything about not being smart. I said there are two kinds of smart. you can get straight A’s if you can merely regurgitate what you are told, but that’s not who ends up with their names on new theories.

My point is anyone can regurgitate whatever tyranny of thought is being promoted at any given moment. Back in the 1980’s when the “We’re all gonna die!” hype was over “nuclear winter” and “global cooling”, I predicted this scare over warming.

Such experience means nothing to you I know. Also predictable. That;s just the way things go. Newton used to have to invoke religion to rationalize his contributions to science. Everyone is affected by the mental tyranny.

15 years ago I kept hearing all these really insane big-talker wannabe AWE people (and you are still occasionally experiencing some of them here) talking endlessly of “replacing hardware with software” (flying kites to generate electricity). My thought was "OK, so how long should it take to write such simple software - a few months?

Ten years ago Joby had long “pivoted” to EVTOLs, but the AWE hype went on, with a billion dollars being spent, yet none of the promises to “power X hundred homes in remote location Y by date Z” ever came true, and one theme remaining was “replacing hardware with software”, but still, there was no actual progress, and none of the statements were materializing.

Five years ago I thought “This guy Tallak seems like a reasonable chap.” At the same time, I thought: “He’ll still be writing software for flying kites in 5 years, without any product resulting.” Well, here you are.

Back when i was a kid, mental hospitals were called “funny farms”, and a common portrayal had the patients running around in open fields with butterfly nets for recreation. Today we have a lot of wind energy wannabes, often flagged as “crazy” in the actual field of wind energy, running around in open fields with kites, still talking about software replacing hardware.

For the entire 15 years I’ve been asking “So have they had time to write that software yet?”, wondering why they weren’t building at RC model scale with the hardware so they could concentrate on getting that software written. That way a few dedicated people could do the job without millions of dollars and “renting office space” with their main “product” being “group selfies” of like 30 smiling kids at a time.

The reason academia has been involved?
They are always looking for ways to get kids interested in often-boring (for some) fields like aero engineering, and if it’s saving the world with kites, so be it - as long as it gets the kids to have fun while being forced to absorb at least some of the curriculum, it is a positive step for the university. They don’t need to produce products, just publish “papers”.

Anyway, I’ve been lectured the whole time by these people who, in the end, remain unable to come through with a single promise, no product, zero homes powered by kites, not even a single one - nope, nothing, and yet they go on, lecturing someone who predicted this whole thing, going all the way back to “global cooling”.

So anyway, by this point, I’m probably suffering from global warming derangement derangement syndrome - where other peoples’ derangement" is making me feel deranged, out of concern for THEIR derangement. At least there is someone out here looking out for your well-being - someone concerned for your plight. So don’t take it the wrong way. Just look at it as someone concerned enough to let you know all about “The La Brea Tar Pits”.

Does it do any good? Usually not, as the endless skeletons in the tar pits show us. But at least someone tried! :slight_smile:

Well for the first one you have people like Magnus Carlsen who cn regurgitate a slew of old chess games but also play from his intuition. Smartness is so much more than. linear interpolation between these two options.

Well, I guess you were right about nothing much coming out of my work for five years. Hmm. Well I do know that I made a lot of great stuff at Kitemill, so the time was not wasted. What we are doing now is not what we did when I started in Kitemill.

I sure wish we had progressed more in these 6 years [not five] but I don’t think I ever really chimed in back then on us producing gigawatts by now. I could tell you what I think now but of course we all understand I couldnt say that in a public forum, even if I was to agree with the current official company message (in which case you would not believe me) or «spill my guts» (in which case I would be doing meaningless harm to my employer). So you will never know I guess. So that brings me back to your remark, and realizing that your expectations of both progress and what i am able to share is probably much bigger than reality could deliver.

I guess also smartness could be seeing these things between the lines rather than keep hammering over and over along the same lines of thought.

Anyways I hope you still find me a reasonable chap in spite of my shortcomings. I always thought you had some interesting sides to your person.

Regarding why we didnt het further in that time period, i think the answer does also lie somewhere else than just «fools fools fools» and selling lies. Again I cant share these things, maybe Kitemill would one day as a company. @Rodread did share a lot at AWEC I can only hope we follow his lead…

About your discussion, @tallakt and @dougselsam.

In my opinion we should not confuse the process of developing ideas which can be complex, and the actual result in a field which is simple (success or failure).

For example, it is almost illusory to describe the different layers of the intellectual development of Magnus Carlsen. On the other hand, we easily see the actual result: he wins his chess games and is world champion.

It is also perilous to describe the intellectual and creative forms that take part in the process of developing AWE. But we know the results so far, which are not those of Magnus Carlsen. However, when a company succeeds, it is natural that it seeks to publicize it, while ensuring that its technical or commercial objectives remain secret in most cases. It even happened that a company like Makani took pains to detail and publish the causes of its failure, probably in order to advance the AWE industry.

We can nevertheless think that the positive result of AWE can be delayed. But this means taking into account the patterns that lead to impasses, which all AWE players perceive, without however agreeing on the nature of said patterns.

What irritates Doug is the propensity to make people believe in imminent success, hence his research on similar cases showing equivalent signs of failure that are not immediately visible: in this sense he deciphers the information.

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https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/1f4t1p9/worlds_largest_sailing_cargo_ship_makes_first/lknqx4b/

That is a beautiful photo. Really impressive. However, I’m sensing this spinning cylinder is not worth the effort, and will not be widely adopted. I see it as a case of “greenwashing”. :slight_smile:

How about this one (again)?
image

This wildly reinvented wind turbine generates five times more energy than its competitors (msn.com)

They can’t build anything even close, despite the fact that they could easily do so using off-the-shelf turbines, yet the article claims it “generates 5 times more energy”.

How could it “generate” any energy whatsoever, if it doesn’t exist?
We’ve reached the point where, because of the persuasive power of renderings, they just think lying is now part of the game. Why build anything when you can just “illustrate” your “press-release breakthrough” and be done with it?
People will go on discussing this, maybe throwing money at it, as though it really exists.

As I’ve pointed out, extremely similar designs were promoted by Heronemus, “the father of wind energy”, from UMass. way back in the mid-1900’s.

Personally, I think there might be something to the idea of such arrays of smaller turbines worth pursuing. Somehow though, nobody seems able to make it work out sufficiently to repeat it. And nobody seems to have built anything close to these renderings, even at a small scale.

Hi Doug, and now what do you think of the panel of innovations which consisted of increasing the dimensions of wind turbines?

These innovations include:

  • Longer blades. Significantly longer blades increase energy capture per turbine. Innovations to blades, like segmenting them, can make it easier to transport them, lowering turbine installation costs.
  • Taller towers. Stronger winds exist at higher hub heights, beyond the reach of today’s typical turbines. An average 17-meter increase in height provides the additional clearance needed for longer blades to reach those high-altitude winds.
  • Low-specific-power wind turbines. These turbines have a larger rotor size relative to generator size. As bigger rotors catch more wind, they transfer more energy to the generator and increase the availability of wind power.
  • Advanced tower manufacturing. Novel manufacturing techniques—such as spiral welding and 3D printing—enable on-site creation of wind turbine towers, reducing costs and avoiding transportation constraints.
  • Climbing cranes. As wind turbine heights increase, cranes that enable more efficient turbine installation and major component replacements (including gearboxes, generators, and blades) could lower costs compared to conventional cranes (such as crawler or mobile cranes). This is because of higher costs to rent as well as disassemble, reassemble, and move conventional cranes between turbine sites.
  • Wake steering. Using controls that tilt or turn the direction a wind turbine faces and change generator speed, plant operators can redirect (or steer) individual turbines to avoid impacting downstream turbines. This can enable existing facilities to achieve annual energy production gains of 1%–2%.

You’re much better off paying attention to the NREL than some random person on the internet. Maybe go to a forum on conventional wind energy if you want diverse and knowledgeable feedback.

Despite appearances the study of conventional wind turbines was not the first object of my post, being perhaps only the third.

First, as many wind innovations not concerning AWE are mentioned here, including the post to which I responded, it seemed useful to me to provide a counterbalance by mentioning non-questionable innovations compared to the last one (staged multirotor) indicated. AWE not falling (in my opinion) within the framework of these uncertain innovations, because it seeks to target the energy of high altitude winds, this brings me to the second object.

This could be an attempt to seek a methodology for AWE that can be modeled on that of conventional wind power. For example, to be concrete and simple, perhaps too simple: “longer blades” would become “larger kites”; “taller towers” ​​would become “longer tethers”, and so on.

Et si l’air se transformait en eau pour pouvoir cultiver dans le désert ?:cactus:

Max Hidalgo Quinto, un biologiste péruvien, a fondé Yawa, une entreprise qui construit des éoliennes portables récoltant jusqu’à 300 litres d’eau par jour à partir de l’humidité atmosphérique. :sweat_drops:
Son système, qui fonctionne sans électricité, utilise l’énergie éolienne pour condenser l’eau de l’air, qui est ensuite filtrée et stockée pour l’irrigation.

Cette technologie est non seulement un pas en avant pour l’agriculture dans les zones arides mais également une avancée significative pour les communautés sans accès régulier à l’eau potable.

Translation:

What if air was transformed into water to be able to cultivate in the desert?:cactus:

Max Hidalgo Quinto, a Peruvian biologist, founded Yawa, a company that builds portable wind turbines harvesting up to 300 liters of water per day from atmospheric humidity. :sweat_drops:
Its system, which operates without electricity, uses wind energy to condense water from the air, which is then filtered and stored for irrigation.

This technology is not only a step forward for agriculture in dry lands but also a significant advance for communities without regular access to drinking water.

Its system, which operates without electricity, uses wind energy to condense water from the air…”.

Maybe ideas for AWES collecting water by filtering the air… Let us imagine very large fly-gen kites
collecting water by stirring large quantities of air, then conveying this water through a pipe adjacent to the tether.

It’s nothing but a wish-list.