Slow Chat II

Its just lazyness on my behalf, I will admit to that. But purposefully so, because I cant be bothered to counter the rather large influx of anti AWE posts that are coming to this forum

Given your criteria, I don’t know what anti-AWE posts are. But I know what a pro-AWE post could be: a year-by-year electricity production curve, if not the means to achieve it, knowing that competition with HAWT for the same altitudes will not be to AWE advantage. The first and last aim of AWE is to harness high altitude wind energy.

Yes Rod, you read that right:

But now:

It’s all a matter of nuance and interpretation…

Now I feel you are just being a stickler. I find it odd that you proclaim AWE is dead shortly after an announced breakthrough. And at the same time, because I dont have access to all the data, I cant verify any claims just now. What is the problem

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Pretty sure @dougselsam is missing from this conversation as well.

“When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.”

Arthur C. Clarke

This industry is riddled with the embodiment of this.

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See: Questions about Moderation - #204 by Windy_Skies

I don’t really see that, or maybe I’m not paying attention. Some degree of that is good, as you can only spend your money once, so you want to make sure to spend it where it makes sense.

I do see it on this forum, where we have Doug and Pierre. They appointed themselves as industry observers, which is fine I guess, but then they are very bad at that, with the results we see. I’m not interested in reading observer type comments, as you’re just another person with an opinion, just like me and everyone else. And no one can see the future. Unless perhaps you do it very sparingly and do a good job of it, with well-thought out arguments and referenced and so on.

This:

And this:

Is not that.

I never called myself an industry observer. I presented some publications, including a peer-reviewed one, and also presented prototypes at various events including the Dieppe International Kite Festival 2012. And I also tried to open up quite a few avenues, good or bad, for the development of AWE, including a recent one with high drag coefficient parasails.

Not being able to go beyond this on my own for all these projects, I’m going to put myself on the back burner for a certain time or permanently.

That said a breakthrough (but this time real) in AWE may be able to wake me up.

See you later or never.

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I was unfair to put you in the same comment, and with that imply you’re roughly equal to, Doug.

I used “appointed themselves,” or in other words, act as one. It is exclusively what Doug does nowadays it seems. You still do some other things. If you want my advice, I’d choose one of the things, a small one or a small part of one, and try to make that as good as you can make it. This will likely involve learning new skills.

You are not just one thing @PierreB. Your contribution overall is certainly positive. Though as I have pointed out a few times, the correct time to «call» AWE being a dead end is probably never…

Good thoughts about why some avenues to implementing a style of AWE may be harder is most welcome in my opinion. I just dont think that «15 years and counting» is such

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Is AWES academia as one track and paper generation focussed as physics?

There does seem to be a major tract of investigation with many small step improvements and a focus for grants
It may have hardly started… But I’m not convinced AWES academia has concluded its architecture variant investigations …
In fact I’m kinda optimistic about a blossoming of scientific research in general

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There will always be «people» in every part of society. Go back in history I think most great scientists had trouble getting funding and acceptance from their peers. Many great scientists from old days were noble people, so of course a great many good minds of that time eg in the working class did not get a chance in academia. So things are probably better now than back in the days.

You could argue that the new structure where you need to write papers to get fundings, and often in a scope of a defined larger project, is not allowing researchers to come up with the best research they could have. For sure also the pressure of many phds fighting for a few grants could make researchers follow a pragmatic route rather than their heart.

I myself was rejected from my local university I think largely because they did not have any grant money covering AWE (nor interest from existing employees). Anyways things went well for me I learned much more in Kitemill in a team than I would have alone as a phd student at the university. And I dont particularily like writing papers.

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One perspective could be asking how AWE right now is not like physics…

Physics has things like the Large Hadron Collider, astronomy has big telescopes, it wouldn’t be bad if AWE had something like that as well. So perhaps a reeling ground station that researchers can request time on, a rotary launch tower, and so on.

Maybe also a (kite) manufacturing workshop, a software and simulation center, and so on.

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I had the thought that rotary or linear launch is a lot like the sport of hammer throw. There has been probably been done lots of research on the physics of that.

https://www.eeweb.com/physics-in-hammer-throw/

Hi Kids!
OK where we last left off with Minesto, right around Valentine’s Day, 2024, I had expressed skepticism over Minesto’s “press-release breakthrough” claiming their latest, greatest, underwater kite turbine was suddenly powering a thousand homes or some such figure, in the Faroe Islands.

If you check the stock price chart for Minesto, you can see that the stock leading up to this, in January, 2024, was as high as almost 10 Swedish Kroner (?), but had declined to 5 Swedish Kroner as Valentine’s Day (Feb. 14) approached.

By Valentine’s day, the price was up to around 7 Swedish Kroner, but then, over the weekend between Friday, Feb. 23 and Monday, Feb. 26, the stock dropped precipitously from 6 Swedish Kroner to 3.52 Swedish Kroner.

Minesto AB (publ) (MINEST.ST) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance

If you click on the “6-month” chart duration, you can see that the stock is worth about 1/3 of what it was worth before the supposed grid-connected installation and powering of - was it 1000 homes? And it is down to about 1/4 of its peak value earlier this year.

Well, you probably won’t find a “press-release” announcing the machine broke down within the first week or two of supposed grid-tied operation, but that linear drop to nearly half the price over a single weekend suggests that somehow, word got out among insiders that the project was somehow not working out as previously announced. At least that is my impression.

I have probably explained how I came to take a skeptical position on this particular company. It was due to the insistence of the guys running the previous forum that it was a great idea, because the engineers designed jet engines for SAAB. Noting how much of what these guys said turned out to be utter nonsense, I told them that based on nothing but the fact that they said this was a good idea, I would take that as a negative indicator and say it was not going to be a fruitful approach. I think their main motivation was it involved “a kite”. I’m thinking this might be one more example of an idea that might seem clever at first glance, especially to the uninitiated, but where “the only thing wrong with it is its main feature”. So anyway, how many homes do you think Minesto is powering today? :slight_smile:

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The share price could well be an indication of problems. That being said, if the bad news was not announced publicly, this would be illegal insider trading

Well, you bring up an interesting point. I was thinking maybe the information was known by a lot of people, possibly publicized in some localized way, or common knowledge in either Sweden or the Faroe Islands - maybe both… I mean, there are a lot of people involved, from the company itself, to investors, to workers, local boat captains and personnel, to the utilities running the grid they were supposedly feeding, fishermen in the area, etc., etc., etc.

Also, while I am no expert on the subject, Investopedia says this:

" When Is Insider Trading Legal?
Legal insider transactions happen in the stock market all the time. The question of legality stems from the SEC’s attempt to maintain a fair marketplace. It is legal for company insiders to trade company stock as long as they report these trades to the SEC on time."

Here’s an interesting video about the Faroe Islands I happened to see a few weeks ago, that coincidentally mentioned the Minesto project.
This is The World’s Most Remote Infrastructure Project - YouTube
I seem to recall a conversation with someone from Minesto in that video, where it was stated that multiple units were powering the grid at that moment. That was a “red flag” for me. I thought the show was probably made a while before it appeared on youtube, that they were more interested in a compelling story than facts, and were probably saying multiple Minesto units were powering the grid ahead of the fact, thinking it might be true by the time the show aired.

Anyway, you make an interesting observation. Going down that rabbit-hole, it makes me wonder how illegal it might be to keep issuing false press-releases in the first place? Or not correcting them publicly when they turn out to be wrong? Seems like a lot of companies get a pass, based on the general derangement syndrome currently in play… :slight_smile:

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So anyway, my use of the word “insider” was unintentional, regarding anything illegal in the stock movement - I did not mean to imply anything in that regard. My point was not so much a concern of the actual stock value, but that, in the absence of any actual information, it was the only possible indicator of the status of the supposed grid-feed operation I could find.

There are other possible explanations, such as the well-worn “buy the rumor, sell the news” rule of stock investing, which says the hype preceding a supposed value-enhancing event can often outweigh the lesser level of excitement after the event actually occurs, kind of like kids getting super-excited in the weeks before Christmas, which is then mostly forgotten by New Years.

Here is what struck me: A statement of, “in the future” “powering X hundred (or thousand) homes, by date Y, in remote location Z” has become so redundant in the field of AWE or kite power of any kind, that, to me anyway, it is just a symptom of “the syndrome”. Anyway, here’s a link to the Popular Science article again:
Huge underwater ‘kite’ turbine powered 1,000 homes in the Faroe Islands | Popular Science (popsci.com)

Now, speaking of “publicly available information”, that seems to be entirely absent from the field of AWE. Regarding Makani, for example, when they had promised to power X hundred homes by date Y in remote location Hawaii, Dave Santos was relegated to telling us he had “inside sources” or some sort of spy, in the area of Hawaii that could keep us up to date on whether there was in fact any progress.

Why? Because the “press” (“journalists”) do not in fact do any research or follow up on any story. They often don’t even write the stories, but simply regurgitate press-releases from the companies that are the subject matter of their own stories.

The companies don’t provide any followup information either. They hope the world will read of their stated “future achievements” and then go back to sleep, never questioning whether the “stories” (and that’s all they are - fiction) turned out to even be true at all!

This was the same dynamic with Altaeros, when they were supposed to be powering a small town in Alaska at a certain point in time (powering X homes by date Y in remote location Z). Seeing how frail the flying donut appeared from photos, I declared that it was not in fact powering this town, then made a call to the local newspaper up there, that had supposedly broken the story, only to find that nobody there even knew what I was talking about, and that there was no such device operating there at all!

Did the company update us on the status? Nope, not a chance. Did “the press” who had repeated the story in so many places? Nope. It took ME to place a single phone call to find out the fact that the story was false, and the BAT was not powering anything in that remote location.

Next you have the Skysails announcement of “powering X homes by date Y in remote location Z (island of Mauritius)”. Are you seeing a pattern here yet? I was chastised for suggesting that the stated factory production and worldwide sales were a delusion, and that the stated powering of the grid in Mauritius was probably not even taking place, but just another attempt to garner congratulations ahead of a supposed accomplishment, followed by “radio silence”. Since then we’ve been relegated to wondering for years on end now, whether it has even been run at all! And I don’t think we need to winder too much.

Where were the “journalists” and “reporters” following up on all those articles? Which of them had the focus to even follow up on their own articles AT ALL, let alone develop sources with which they could check on whatever progress might actually be taking place, and get back to the public with accurate information? Nowhere, that’s where. Because there are very few actual reporters or journalists left, if they ever existed as we like to think. Because all the stories are basically just lies, repeated by the “journalists” who are not doing their stated jobs any more than the AWE or kite companies are doing THEIR jobs. It is all just lies piled upon lies to sell a story, sell a stock, or convince people of “in the future” accomplishments that never happen.

So when I see multiple almost identical articles saying Minesto “powered 1000 homes” on date Y at remote location Z, my only question is “How could ANYONE BELIEVE this stuff at this point???”
The only difference is, in this case the statement was they “powered” 1000 homes (pastence) but I don’t even believe THAT. At this point, this same basic story has proven false so many times it is laughable for anyone who pays attention at all, rather than living in a voluntary fantasy world.

One thing is the lack of any followup “news” coverage since Valentine’s Day. Today I found the only article listed in Google “news” since the original announcement. This article in “Hydro Review” has a dateline of February 23, right before the stock plunged:

Minesto verifies functionality and power production of Dragon 12 tidal plant (hydroreview.com)

Today is the first time I’ve seen this article listed on Google news, even though I do check it every so often. Why? Has Google been holding back? If you read carefully, it only states basic functionality was confirmed, indicating that “risks have been reduced”. I don’t see any other articles since then. Reading between the lines, since the article does not even imply that operation is ongoing, this is another case of what is not being said being more important than what is being said.

This article says there was a power purchase agreement signed in February. That would imply they expected ongoing grid-feed operation. So if that were taking place, wouldn’t this article be celebrating such ongoing grid-feed power production? Instead they act as though it was all just a brief experiment to confirm basic functionality and “reduce risk”. At least we read it used an induction motor! My take is it sounds like the apparatus failed within the first few minutes of operation. Possiblt the moment it briefly produced any power whatsoever. Mabe the tether broke. Maybe it sprung a leak and salt water got into the electronics. Maybe it was uncontrollable or crashed. Maybe something broke that could not be fixed. Maybe it turned into a deep-water salvage operation, laying on the sea floor, too deep for normal divers to reach. But we don’t know, and we may never know. Why? Because the companies are dishonest, or at least not forthcoming with corrective information, and the “journalists” do not even do their job of following up on stories, doing any research, or even being curious enough to ask any questions.

So if this article was really published on February 23, before the stock quickly plummeted almost in half, there are no concerns of “insider trading”, but apparently, people figured out that this first installation quickly failed, and the company was suddenly pretending it was just a successful test, rather than the previously stated ongoing grid-tie operation “powering 1000 homes”.

Now we all learn as children what to make of this, when we are read the story of “The Boy Who Cried Wolf”, right? My impression is that after 15 years of almost the same exact lie being told over and over, with well over a billion dollars spent, kites are still mostly just for recreation, and as of this day there is still not a single kite, whether underwater or in the air, powering anything, anywhere in the world, on a regular basis.

So you guys can go on examining in minute details the same exact questions of over a decade ago, such as whether kites follow the cube-square laws, single-skin, double-skin, circle or figure-8, whether tethers should be faired, blah blah blah, and believe the same exact lies, with only the names and locations changed, as you “rearrange the deck-chairs of the Titanic”, but I thought I’d just waste a few more minutes of my time to inject a slight amount of reality here, and I guess I should move on, because providing facts goes largely unrewarded when facts are unwanted in the first place! :slight_smile:

We are trying to find viable ways to produce electricity with kites.

The question below and the answers on Reddit concern a crucial point for AWES.

Is there a physical limit on how big a kite could be?
https://www.reddit.com/r/askscience/comments/1oqq1z/is_there_a_physical_limit_on_how_big_a_kite_could/
The answer below goes with several topics.

SoulWager

-11 a

If it has multiple tethers, there’s no real limit aside from the environment you put it in(you can essentially make a lot of small modular kites that can be stitched together into giant ones.) It’s a question of when it’s scale diverges from sanity so completely that you have to invent a new word to describe it.

Isotropic kite (multi-anchors, multi-tethers); Network Kites and Daisy network kite rotors (“a lot of small modular kites”).